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RoadBacked Research · 2026

Fatal Hit-and-Run Crash Exposure Was 44% Higher in 2020–2024 Than Before 2020

A RoadBacked analysis of NHTSA FARS and FHWA driving-exposure data found that the U.S. rate of fatal crashes involving hit-and-run rose from 0.607 per billion vehicle miles traveled in 2015–2019 to 0.872 in 2020–2024 — an increase of 43.8% after adjusting for how much Americans drove.

Published · Analysis of NHTSA FARS and FHWA Highway Statistics.

Key findings

+43.8%

Change in the exposure-adjusted rate of fatal crashes involving hit-and-run, 2015–2019 vs 2020–2024.

13,762

Fatal crashes involving hit-and-run recorded in FARS during 2020–2024.

15.773T

Vehicle miles traveled during 2020–2024, the exposure denominator for the current period.

38 of 42

Trend-eligible states with a higher point-estimate rate in 2020–2024 than in 2015–2019.

The national rate rose even though total driving was slightly lower

Pooled national comparison of fatal crashes involving hit-and-run and vehicle miles traveled, 2015–2019 versus 2020–2024.
Measure2015–20192020–2024Change
Fatal crashes involving hit-and-run9,69613,762+41.9%
Vehicle miles traveled15.976 trillion15.773 trillion−1.27%
Rate per billion VMT0.6070.872+43.8%
95% Poisson confidence interval0.595–0.6190.858–0.887—

Americans drove slightly fewer miles across 2020–2024 than across 2015–2019, so the increase is not a product of more driving. Pooling crash counts and miles before dividing gives 0.607 fatal crashes involving hit-and-run per billion vehicle miles in the earlier period and 0.872 in the later one. The confidence intervals for the two pooled rates do not overlap.

Annual national rate, 2015–2024

The rate rose sharply relative to the pre-2020 period, peaked around 2021–2022, and improved in 2023 and 2024. The 2024 rate remained roughly 34.7% above the 2015–2019 pooled baseline.

Fatal crashes involving hit-and-run per billion vehicle miles traveled, by year. Source: NHTSA FARS and FHWA Highway Statistics.

Annual values shown in the chart above.
YearCrashesVMT (million)Rate / billion VMT
20151,7633,089,8420.571
20162,0123,173,8220.634
20171,9563,210,2470.609
20181,9953,240,3230.616
20191,9703,261,7740.604
20202,5202,903,6170.868
20212,8303,132,4130.903
20222,8953,196,1910.906
20232,8243,246,8180.870
20242,6933,294,0300.818

Highest current-period point estimates

The ten states with the highest 2020–2024 rate of fatal crashes involving hit-and-run per billion vehicle miles traveled, among states with at least 20 qualifying crashes in the current period.

Rate per billion VMT, 2020–2024. Source: NHTSA FARS and FHWA Highway Statistics.

State rankings are ordered by point estimates. Confidence intervals overlap for many states, so adjacent ranks should not be interpreted as proof that their underlying rates are meaningfully different.

Top ten states by 2020–2024 rate of fatal crashes involving hit-and-run per billion vehicle miles traveled.
RankStateCrashesRate / billion VMT95% CIChange vs 2015–19
1California2,3291.4851.425–1.546+48.9%
2Nevada1981.4541.259–1.671+69.3%
3New Mexico1901.4161.221–1.632+48.2%
4Arizona4651.2871.172–1.409+34.9%
5Louisiana3371.2471.117–1.387+50.1%
6Tennessee4721.1671.064–1.277+96.9%
7Texas1,6381.1331.079–1.190+42.6%
8Florida1,2851.1251.064–1.188+21.2%
9Illinois5251.0450.957–1.138+57.7%
10Hawaii490.9770.723–1.292+19.1%

Full state results

Every state in the analysis. Sort the table by any column. Six states are not ranked because they recorded fewer than 20 qualifying fatal crashes in 2020–2024: Maine, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, Wyoming. The District of Columbia is excluded because this report ranks states and DC has a materially different urban travel environment.

Rhode Island and Idaho each reached 20 qualifying crashes in the current period, so they appear in the ranking, but their 2015–2019 counts were below the threshold and they are excluded from the historical trend comparison.

  • #1 California

    1.485
    2020–24 crashes
    2,329
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    1,568,450
    95% CI
    1.425–1.546
    Change vs 2015–19
    +48.9%

    Ranked

  • #2 Nevada

    1.454
    2020–24 crashes
    198
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    136,165
    95% CI
    1.259–1.671
    Change vs 2015–19
    +69.3%

    Ranked

  • #3 New Mexico

    1.416
    2020–24 crashes
    190
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    134,224
    95% CI
    1.221–1.632
    Change vs 2015–19
    +48.2%

    Ranked

  • #4 Arizona

    1.287
    2020–24 crashes
    465
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    361,425
    95% CI
    1.172–1.409
    Change vs 2015–19
    +34.9%

    Ranked

  • #5 Louisiana

    1.247
    2020–24 crashes
    337
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    270,285
    95% CI
    1.117–1.387
    Change vs 2015–19
    +50.1%

    Ranked

  • #6 Tennessee

    1.167
    2020–24 crashes
    472
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    404,516
    95% CI
    1.064–1.277
    Change vs 2015–19
    +96.9%

    Ranked

  • #7 Texas

    1.133
    2020–24 crashes
    1,638
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    1,445,299
    95% CI
    1.079–1.190
    Change vs 2015–19
    +42.6%

    Ranked

  • #8 Florida

    1.125
    2020–24 crashes
    1,285
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    1,142,061
    95% CI
    1.064–1.188
    Change vs 2015–19
    +21.2%

    Ranked

  • #9 Illinois

    1.045
    2020–24 crashes
    525
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    502,564
    95% CI
    0.957–1.138
    Change vs 2015–19
    +57.7%

    Ranked

  • #10 Hawaii

    0.977
    2020–24 crashes
    49
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    50,128
    95% CI
    0.723–1.292
    Change vs 2015–19
    +19.1%

    Ranked

  • #11 Delaware

    0.937
    2020–24 crashes
    45
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    48,024
    95% CI
    0.683–1.254
    Change vs 2015–19
    +16.6%

    Ranked

  • #12 Connecticut

    0.934
    2020–24 crashes
    140
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    149,950
    95% CI
    0.785–1.102
    Change vs 2015–19
    +52.0%

    Ranked

  • #13 Maryland

    0.886
    2020–24 crashes
    247
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    278,637
    95% CI
    0.779–1.004
    Change vs 2015–19
    +64.4%

    Ranked

  • #14 New York

    0.864
    2020–24 crashes
    489
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    565,665
    95% CI
    0.790–0.945
    Change vs 2015–19
    +62.1%

    Ranked

  • #15 Oregon

    0.845
    2020–24 crashes
    152
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    179,931
    95% CI
    0.716–0.990
    Change vs 2015–19
    +136.7%

    Ranked

  • #16 Washington

    0.834
    2020–24 crashes
    242
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    290,297
    95% CI
    0.732–0.946
    Change vs 2015–19
    +106.4%

    Ranked

  • #17 New Jersey

    0.810
    2020–24 crashes
    302
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    372,769
    95% CI
    0.721–0.907
    Change vs 2015–19
    +53.9%

    Ranked

  • #18 Kentucky

    0.805
    2020–24 crashes
    194
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    240,855
    95% CI
    0.696–0.927
    Change vs 2015–19
    +81.9%

    Ranked

  • #19 Colorado

    0.804
    2020–24 crashes
    214
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    266,139
    95% CI
    0.700–0.919
    Change vs 2015–19
    +39.0%

    Ranked

  • #20 Alaska

    0.795
    2020–24 crashes
    22
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    27,656
    95% CI
    0.499–1.204
    Change vs 2015–19
    -6.0%

    Ranked

  • #21 Oklahoma

    0.787
    2020–24 crashes
    176
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    223,542
    95% CI
    0.675–0.913
    Change vs 2015–19
    +44.2%

    Ranked

  • #22 Michigan

    0.765
    2020–24 crashes
    365
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    477,142
    95% CI
    0.688–0.848
    Change vs 2015–19
    +40.6%

    Ranked

  • #23 South Carolina

    0.760
    2020–24 crashes
    223
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    293,288
    95% CI
    0.664–0.867
    Change vs 2015–19
    +12.4%

    Ranked

  • #24 North Carolina

    0.737
    2020–24 crashes
    440
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    596,723
    95% CI
    0.670–0.810
    Change vs 2015–19
    +56.3%

    Ranked

  • #25 Mississippi

    0.734
    2020–24 crashes
    149
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    202,968
    95% CI
    0.621–0.862
    Change vs 2015–19
    +77.7%

    Ranked

  • #26 Georgia

    0.712
    2020–24 crashes
    437
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    614,078
    95% CI
    0.646–0.782
    Change vs 2015–19
    +30.8%

    Ranked

  • #27 Ohio

    0.700
    2020–24 crashes
    389
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    555,876
    95% CI
    0.632–0.773
    Change vs 2015–19
    +52.9%

    Ranked

  • #28 Arkansas

    0.697
    2020–24 crashes
    132
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    189,349
    95% CI
    0.583–0.827
    Change vs 2015–19
    +65.9%

    Ranked

  • #29 Missouri

    0.697
    2020–24 crashes
    275
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    394,651
    95% CI
    0.617–0.784
    Change vs 2015–19
    +45.4%

    Ranked

  • #30 Pennsylvania

    0.638
    2020–24 crashes
    310
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    485,900
    95% CI
    0.569–0.713
    Change vs 2015–19
    +35.3%

    Ranked

  • #31 Rhode Island

    0.538
    2020–24 crashes
    20
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    37,141
    95% CI
    0.329–0.832
    Change vs 2015–19
    +41.3%

    Trend comparison excluded — <20 crashes in 2015–2019

  • #32 Kansas

    0.531
    2020–24 crashes
    82
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    154,379
    95% CI
    0.422–0.659
    Change vs 2015–19
    +66.4%

    Ranked

  • #33 Indiana

    0.528
    2020–24 crashes
    224
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    424,372
    95% CI
    0.461–0.602
    Change vs 2015–19
    +6.1%

    Ranked

  • #34 Alabama

    0.524
    2020–24 crashes
    187
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    356,637
    95% CI
    0.452–0.605
    Change vs 2015–19
    +16.2%

    Ranked

  • #35 Wisconsin

    0.498
    2020–24 crashes
    162
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    325,224
    95% CI
    0.424–0.581
    Change vs 2015–19
    +21.2%

    Ranked

  • #36 Virginia

    0.470
    2020–24 crashes
    195
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    414,536
    95% CI
    0.407–0.541
    Change vs 2015–19
    +40.2%

    Ranked

  • #37 Montana

    0.450
    2020–24 crashes
    30
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    66,665
    95% CI
    0.304–0.642
    Change vs 2015–19
    +35.4%

    Ranked

  • #38 West Virginia

    0.434
    2020–24 crashes
    35
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    80,621
    95% CI
    0.302–0.604
    Change vs 2015–19
    -12.3%

    Ranked

  • #39 Utah

    0.379
    2020–24 crashes
    64
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    168,969
    95% CI
    0.292–0.484
    Change vs 2015–19
    +65.7%

    Ranked

  • #40 Massachusetts

    0.287
    2020–24 crashes
    84
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    292,952
    95% CI
    0.229–0.355
    Change vs 2015–19
    +4.0%

    Ranked

  • #41 Nebraska

    0.257
    2020–24 crashes
    27
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    105,087
    95% CI
    0.169–0.374
    Change vs 2015–19
    -16.5%

    Ranked

  • #42 Minnesota

    0.233
    2020–24 crashes
    66
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    283,488
    95% CI
    0.180–0.296
    Change vs 2015–19
    +17.4%

    Ranked

  • #43 Idaho

    0.209
    2020–24 crashes
    20
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    95,635
    95% CI
    0.128–0.323
    Change vs 2015–19
    +13.6%

    Trend comparison excluded — <20 crashes in 2015–2019

  • #44 Iowa

    0.129
    2020–24 crashes
    21
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    162,573
    95% CI
    0.080–0.197
    Change vs 2015–19
    -48.7%

    Ranked

  • Maine

    0.055
    2020–24 crashes
    4
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    72,346
    95% CI
    0.015–0.142
    Change vs 2015–19
    -72.8%

    Not ranked — small count

  • New Hampshire

    0.152
    2020–24 crashes
    10
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    65,736
    95% CI
    0.073–0.280
    Change vs 2015–19
    +3.3%

    Not ranked — small count

  • North Dakota

    0.297
    2020–24 crashes
    14
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    47,130
    95% CI
    0.162–0.498
    Change vs 2015–19
    +21.7%

    Not ranked — small count

  • South Dakota

    0.316
    2020–24 crashes
    16
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    50,702
    95% CI
    0.180–0.512
    Change vs 2015–19
    +203.7%

    Not ranked — small count

  • Vermont

    0.322
    2020–24 crashes
    11
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    34,140
    95% CI
    0.161–0.577
    Change vs 2015–19
    +69.4%

    Not ranked — small count

  • Wyoming

    0.182
    2020–24 crashes
    9
    2020–24 VMT (million)
    49,460
    95% CI
    0.083–0.345
    Change vs 2015–19
    —

    Not ranked — small count

Where rates increased most

Among the 42 trend-eligible states — those with at least 20 qualifying crashes in both pooled periods — these ten had the largest percentage increase in the point-estimate rate. This is a change in a point estimate, not a causal attribution.

  1. 1Oregon+136.7%
  2. 2Washington+106.4%
  3. 3Tennessee+96.9%
  4. 4Kentucky+81.9%
  5. 5Mississippi+77.7%
  6. 6Nevada+69.3%
  7. 7Kansas+66.4%
  8. 8Arkansas+65.9%
  9. 9Utah+65.7%
  10. 10Maryland+64.4%

Sensitivity check

Removing 2020 does not explain the result

2020 was an unusual travel year, so we recomputed the current period without it. For 2021–2024 there were 11,242 qualifying crashes across 12,869,452 million vehicle miles, a pooled rate of 0.874 per billion VMT — 43.9% above the 2015–2019 pooled baseline.

Methodology

Crash source. NHTSA Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), annual National Auxiliary crash-level files, 2015 through 2024.

Unit of analysis. The fatal traffic crash — one row per crash in the ACC_AUX file. FARS counts qualifying fatal traffic crashes; the metric does not establish who caused the crash or fatality.

Hit-and-run filter. A_HR = 1 (“Involving A Hit And Run”).

Exposure denominator. FHWA Highway Statistics VM-2 annual vehicle miles traveled by state. Annual VM-2 tables from 2015 through 2024 were used. VM-2 publishes VMT in millions of miles, converted to billions before the rate calculation.

Rate formula. Qualifying fatal crashes ÷ (VMT in millions ÷ 1,000) = crashes per billion VMT.

Pooling. Annual crash counts and annual VMT are summed across 2015–2019 and across 2020–2024 before each pooled rate is computed. Annual rates are not averaged.

State ranking eligibility. A minimum of 20 qualifying crashes in the current period (2020–2024).

Trend eligibility. A minimum of 20 qualifying crashes in both pooled periods, which leaves 42 states.

Confidence intervals. Exact Poisson intervals around the crash counts, divided by the pooled VMT exposure.

District of Columbia. Excluded from the state ranking because this report ranks states and DC has a materially different urban travel environment.

This is a descriptive observational analysis. It does not establish causation.

Limitations

  • FARS covers fatal crashes. It does not cover all hit-and-run incidents or property-damage-only events.
  • “Involving a hit-and-run” does not establish that the fleeing vehicle caused the crash or the fatality.
  • State rates may reflect many factors including road environment, urbanization, travel mix, reporting and coding practice, enforcement, pedestrian exposure and other unmeasured differences.
  • VMT normalization adjusts for miles driven, but it does not eliminate all differences in exposure or road-user mix.
  • Point-estimate rankings can overstate precision; confidence intervals overlap for many states.
  • Small-count states are excluded from the rankings and trend comparisons according to the stated thresholds.
  • Individual driver risk cannot be inferred from these state-level rates.

Sources and data

State results (CSV)Pooled counts, VMT, rates, confidence intervals and eligibility status for every state, at full precision.Annual national series (CSV)National crashes, VMT and rate for each year from 2015 through 2024.